InvestWELL Financial InvestWELL Report

 
  

March 10, 2007

Hello,

I hope you are doing well.

Since the last InvestWELL Report, the market had a big drop, which occurred in February. To be exact, on February 27, the Dow Jones dropped over 200 points in one minute and had the worst one-day performance since 2001. Recently, the market has stabilized somewhat as the economy continues to show signs of healthy growth.

Our next InvestWELL Report will be released on April 7, 2007 (following the Labor Report which is generally recognized as a “market mover”).

Derek Polcyn
President

P.S. This is a non-member version of InvestWELL Report. Please sign up for the membership ($39 per month) to receive the full benefits of our membership. 


In This Issue:

Investment Idea
Quiz
Our Results
Market Highlights
Behavioral Finance Indicators
Answer to the Quiz



Investment Idea

Question: How can I invest in the green energy that supports sustainable development?

Answer: The green sector includes firms involved in solar, wind, water, fuel cells, micro turbines, battery storage, etc. The following two indexes consist of companies that support a sustainable environment: WilderHill Clean Energy Index (symbol ECO) and WilderHill New Energy Global Innovation Index (symbol NEX). More information about them can be found by entering the symbols on the American Stock Exchange website www.amex.com

 


Quiz

Socially Responsible Investing (SRI) would most likely exclude which of the following sectors?

A) semiconductors
B) weapon manufacturing
C) banking

D) clean energy

Answer to the Quiz at the bottom of the newsletter



Our Results (Cumulative %)

InvestWELL Picks & S&P 500

Investment Strategy – MEMBER SECTION

Chart 1.




Market Highlights

  • During the last month, the US equities registered a big decline (Chart 2 & 3) following a sell-off in China. At least, this is the official version from the media which always believes there has to be a short-term trigger for every day ups and downs. In our humble opinion, the market had been grossly overextended and any excuse for a correction was a good excuse.

Charts 2 & 3. S&P 500: 3 Years and Last Month

Charts courtesy of StockCharts.com

  • During the last month, the Canadian equities mirrored the performance of the US equities. The Canadian index rebounded from its February lows but failed to return to its previous high.

Charts 4 & 5. TSX Canada: 3 Years and Last Month

Charts courtesy of StockCharts.com

  • Last month, the US employers added 97K new jobs, while the unemployment rate fell to 4.5%. The slowing housing market and the return of winter weather prompted job cuts in construction which had a negative impact on the hiring decisions.
  • Last month, the number of jobs in Canada increased by 14K. The last month's gains came despite a railroad strike, which resulted in a loss of 34K jobs off the goods-producing side of the economy.
  • U.S. home prices fell 0.7 percent in the fourth quarter, according to Standard & Poor’s. This is the fastest rate home prices have fallen since 1992. Overall home prices rose only 0.4 percent last year.
  • According to CreditSights Inc., rising mortgage defaults by sub-prime borrowers may add more than 500,000 homes to a residential real estate market already beset by slumping prices. A five-year housing boom that ended a year ago was fueled in part by the growth of mortgage products marketed to borrowers with poor credit histories. Now, as defaults on sub-prime loans surge to a seven-year high, more than 20 lenders have closed or sought buyers since the start of 2006. The survivors are raising their lending standards.

  • The European Central Bank raised interest rates for the seventh time since late 2005 to stem inflation after the fastest economic growth in six years. As inflation is below the bank's 2 percent limit and the economy is showing signs of cooling, some investors say the central bank has already reached that point.

  • The first U.S.-listed hedge fund soared 68 per cent after the Initial Public Offering (IPO) started trading. This type of debut is likely to encourage others to list. Fortress Investment Group LLC's shares opened at $35 after pricing at $18.50 the day before, in the best debut for a U.S. initial public offering since commodities exchange Nymex Holdings Inc. more than doubled on its first day of trading last November.

Opportunities and Risks – MEMBER SECTION

 

Behavioral Finance Indicators (see explanation)

Here is a direct quote from the Behavioral Section in last month’s Member newsletter: “Contrary to our expectations, the market continues to defy gravity and keeps going up and up (charts 6 – 8). There are certain historical relationships which we follow, and they are flushing warning signals. Unless these relationships no longer apply (which is quite doubtful), the market will correct itself and return to reality.”

MEMBER SECTION


Charts 6 - 8: Advancing/Declining Line, AAII and Equity Put/Call Ratio




Charts courtesy of StockCharts.com and DecisionPoint.com


Answer to the Quiz

B is correct. SRI would not want to invest in anything related to manufacturing of weapons.


          Thank you for reading InvestWELL Report.

          InvestWELLFinancial.com




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InvestWELL receives no commission or benefit of any kind from the companies whose securities InvestWELL Financial showcases. We do not necessarily own shares in the showcased securities, but if we do, these shares would only form a very small part of widely-held and publicly distributed companies. There is no intention whatsoever of profiting in a manner where the price-impact of trading or holding of a security might arise. The website and related publications of InvestWELL Financial are intended to only be used for educational purposes.