InvestWELL Financial InvestWELL Report

 
  

February 3, 2007

Hello,

I hope you are doing well.

Since the last InvestWELL Report, the market has continued to advance. Currently, a number of indicators are flushing warning signals that the market is quite overextended. Some commentators go as far as to compare the present euphoria to the period of early 2000.

Our next InvestWELL Report will be released on March 10, 2007 (following the Labor Report).

Derek Polcyn
President

P.S. This is a non-member version of InvestWELL Report. Please sign up for the membership ($39 per month) to receive the full benefits of our membership. 



In This Issue:

Investment Idea
Quiz
Our Results
Market Highlights
Behavioral Finance Indicators
Answer to the Quiz



Investment Idea

Question: What is the meaning of Return on Investment?

Answer: The Return on Investment (ROI) is often used to compare benefits of different investment alternatives.

Here is the formula:

ROI = (Gain on Investment / Cost of Investment) * 100

An investment with a higher ROI is preferred over a lower ROI.


 


Quiz

A year ago you bought a stock for $20 per share. Now it is up by $3. What is your return on investment ?

A) 5%
B) 10%
C) 15%

D) 20%

Answer to the Quiz at the bottom of the newsletter



Our Results (Cumulative %)

Investment Strategy – MEMBER SECTION

Chart 1.




Market Highlights

  • During the last month, the US equities kept on going up and up (Chart 2 & 3) and any type of a pull-back, however small, was seen by the market participants as a buying opportunity.

Charts 2 & 3. S&P 500: 3 Years and Last Month

Charts courtesy of StockCharts.com

  • During the last month, the Canadian equities performed very well and rose in tandem with the US market.

Charts 4 & 5. TSX Canada: 3 Years and Last Month

Charts courtesy of StockCharts.com

  • Last month, the US employers added 111K new jobs, which was slightly below analysts’ expectations. However, the December number was revised upward, resulting in counterbalancing the January figure.
  • The U.S. economy grew at the fastest pace in a year last quarter as declining energy costs helped boost consumer spending and contain inflation. Other economic data confirms that manufacturing and construction are still struggling to shake off a slowdown.
  • The figures of Canada’s Labour Market will be released next week. We expect that the numbers will confirm a steady growth in the Canadian economy and a number of new jobs.
  • A growing chorus of industry analysts is contending that long-term performance records of actively managed mutual funds should be restated downwards by as much as 3 percentage points. The restatement is related to the survivorship bias, which allows mutual fund companies to take out of the mutual funds that have underperformed without including their results in the data available to investors. The index mutual funds are not a subject to the survivorship bias since they reflect the performance of an index.

Opportunities and Risks – MEMBER SECTION

 

Behavioral Finance Indicators (see explanation) – MEMBER SECTION

Charts 6 - 8: Advancing/Declining Line, AAII and Equity Put/Call Ratio




Charts courtesy of StockCharts.com and DecisionPoint.com


Answer to the Quiz

C is correct.

ROI = (Gain on Investment / Cost of Investment) * 100 = ($3 / $20) * 100 = 15%.

The holding period was one year. Hence, it is also a one-year ROI.


          Thank you for reading InvestWELL Report.

          InvestWELLFinancial.com




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