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August 5, 2006

This is a non-member version of InvestWELL Report. Please sign up for the membership ($39 per month) to receive the full benefits of our membership.

In This Issue:

Investment Idea
Quiz
Our Results
Market Highlights
Behavioral Finance Indicators
Answer to the Quiz



Investment Idea

Question: What is the difference between call and put equity options?

Answer: In short, if you own (you are long) a call option, you make money when the value of the stock goes up. Conversely, if you own (you are long) a put option, you make money when the stock declines.

A call option buyer has the right, but not the obligation, to buy a particular stock at a specified price within a specific time period (a good thing to have if a stock has gone up in price). On the other hand, a put option buyer has the right to sell a particular stock at a specified price within a specified time (a good thing to own if a stock price went down).

We believe call and put options will continue to gain popularity as more investors get comfortable using them for making profits or for hedging.

 


Quiz

You anticipate the market is about to decline significantly. What security should you consider purchasing ?

A) Call on IBM
B) Put on S&P 500
C) Call on S&P 500
D) Put on IBM

Answer to the Quiz at the bottom of the newsletter



Our Results (Cumulative %)

Chart 1.
portfolio

Investment Strategy – MEMBER SECTION

Charts 2




Market Highlights

Jul 30 - Aug 5, 2006

  • Last week, the US equity markets finished almost where they started (Chart 3 & 4). At present, the markets are responding to a number of negative international political developments, as well gauging the probability of the US interest rate hike next week. The recent Labor Report (113,000 new jobs in July) appears to confirm slowing economy and, therefore, a lower probability of the interest rate hike.

Charts 3 & 4. S&P 500: 5 Years and Last 10 Days

spx 5 yearsspx 10 days

Charts courtesy of StockCharts.com

  • Last week, the Canadian equities have managed to gain more than their US counterparts (Chart 5 & 6). The recent Canadian Labour Report was generally neutral for the markets (loss of 5,500 jobs). However, Canada has had a stellar job creation performance for quite some time (210,000 new jobs this year alone).

Charts 5 & 6. TSX Canada: 5 Years and Last 10 Days

tsx 5 yearstsx 10 days

Charts courtesy of StockCharts.com

  • The interest rate increases in the UK, Europe and Australia raised investors’ concerns about inflation and the upcoming slowdown in the mature markets.
  • Despite lower interest rates, the number of loan applications for mortgages is at the lowest level since May 2002. Mortgage applications are down 29% in the past year, reflecting a severe slowdown in the housing market after four years of strong growth.

  • In recent years, exchange-traded funds (or ETFs) have soared in popularity. Increasingly, however, new index ETFs are being based on custom-made indexes. In fact, in some cases, these new ETFs are based on indexes that operate like a traditional mutual fund. For instance, PowerShares says the indexes tracked by many of its ETFs are designed to find stocks "that have the greatest potential for capital appreciation”. We believe this development is only a disguised form of capitalizing on popularity of ETFs but does not bring anything new to the table.

Opportunities and Risks - MEMBER SECTION

 

Behavioral Finance Indicators (see explanation)MEMBER SECTION

Charts 7 - 9: Advancing/Declining Line, AAII and Equity Put/Call Ratio
advancing - declining
   aaii
put - call
Charts courtesy of StockCharts.com and DecisionPoint.com


Answer to the Quiz

B is correct. You may want to consider buying a put on the market, which is represented by the S&P 500 index. Buying a put on IBM would imply that you are taking a risk on the price change of IBM, rather than the entire market.


          Thank you for reading InvestWELL Report.

          This is a non-member version of InvestWELL Report.

          InvestWELLFinancial.com



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InvestWELL Financial’s first priority, as a provider of independent and unbiased financial information, is to educate our clients. Not only do we provide practical information about securities, but we also coach our clients to become successful independent investors. As such, InvestWELL Financial does not assume any responsibility whatsoever for the use of any information from the website or related publications. Although all sources of information are vetted and the information is believed to be reliable, it is not provided as investment advice. Past performance is not an indicator of future performance in securities. Each portfolio must be balanced and based on personal circumstances. High-risk investment decisions should be made in consultation with an investment professional.

InvestWELL receives no commission or benefit of any kind from the companies whose securities InvestWELL Financial showcases. We do not necessarily own shares in the showcased securities, but if we do, these shares would only form a very small part of widely-held and publicly distributed companies. There is no intention whatsoever of profiting in a manner where the price-impact of trading or holding of a security might arise. The website and related publications of InvestWELL Financial are intended to only be used for educational purposes.